{"id":599,"date":"2020-08-12T22:09:00","date_gmt":"2020-08-12T14:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/new.meicmodel.org\/?p=599"},"modified":"2021-05-10T17:19:05","modified_gmt":"2021-05-10T09:19:05","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e4%ba%ba%e4%b8%ba%e6%ba%90%e6%8e%92%e6%94%be%e7%9a%84%e5%8a%a8%e6%80%81%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%80%e7%b3%bb%e5%88%97%e7%a4%be%e4%bc%9a%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/meic-dev.makenv.com\/?p=599","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\u53d1\u5e03"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2020-08-12 | \u540c\u4e39 \u7a0b\u9759<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e0a\u8ff0\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u57fa\u4e8eMEIC\u6a21\u578b\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u7684\u6392\u653e\u6e90\u4fe1\u606f\u548c\u6392\u653e\u8ba1\u7b97\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u9488\u5bf9\u7535\u529b\u3001\u5de5\u4e1a\uff08\u5305\u542b\u7ec6\u81f4\u5de5\u4e1a\u884c\u4e1a\u5212\u5206\uff0c\u5982\u5de5\u4e1a\u9505\u7089\u3001\u94a2\u94c1\u3001\u6709\u8272\u51b6\u70bc\u3001\u6c34\u6ce5\u3001\u77f3\u6cb9\u5316\u5de5\u7b49\u7b49\uff09\u3001\u4ea4\u901a\u3001\u6c11\u7528\u3001\u6eb6\u5242\u4f7f\u7528\u3001\u519c\u4e1a\u7b49\u884c\u4e1a\u521b\u65b0\u6027\u5730\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e\u6280\u672f\u6f14\u66ff\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4ece\u9a71\u52a8\u529b\u3001\u6280\u672f\u5206\u5e03\u3001\u6392\u653e\u7ed3\u6784\u7b49\u591a\u89d2\u5ea6\u4e0e\u5168\u7403\u7efc\u5408\u8bc4\u4f30\u6a21\u578b\u7cfb\u7edf\u6846\u67b6\u4e0b\u4e2d\u56fd\u5206\u7701\u80fd\u6e90\u6a21\u578b\uff08GCAM-China\uff09\u8fdb\u884c\u5168\u9762\u8026\u5408\uff0c\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u52a8\u6001\u6392\u653e\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff08DPEC\uff09\u3002\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u542b\u80fd\u6e90\u4e0e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u884c\u4e1a\u6280\u672f\u4e0e\u6c61\u67d3\u63a7\u5236\u6280\u672f\u6f14\u66ff\u4e24\u4e2a\u6a21\u5757\uff0c\u4ee5MEIC\u6a21\u578b\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5168\u7403\u80fd\u6e90\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u666f\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c61\u67d3\u63a7\u5236\u653f\u7b56\u4e3a\u9a71\u52a8\uff0c\u591a\u5c3a\u5ea6\u52a8\u6001\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u5927\u6c14\u6c61\u67d3\u7269\u53ca\u6e29\u5ba4\u6c14\u4f53\u6392\u653e\uff08\u56fe1\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"554\" height=\"419\" src=\"http:\/\/new.meicmodel.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/\u56fe\u7247-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1020\" srcset=\"http:\/\/meic-dev.makenv.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/\u56fe\u7247-2.png 554w, http:\/\/meic-dev.makenv.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/\u56fe\u7247-2-300x227.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 554px) 100vw, 554px\" \/><figcaption>\u56fe1\u4e3aDEPC\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b66\u6846\u67b6<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0cMEIC\u56e2\u961f\u7efc\u5408\u8003\u8651\u5168\u7403\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u3001\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u548c\u56fd\u5185\u5927\u6c14\u6c61\u67d3\u63a7\u5236\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u5927\u6c14\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\u6570\u636e\u5e93\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u5305\u542bSSP1-26-BHE\u3001SSP1-26-ECP\u3001SSP2-45-ECP\u3001SSP3-70-BAU\u3001SSP4-60-BAU\u548cSSP5-85-BHE\u516d\u7ec4\u60c5\u666f\uff0c\u7531\u4e94\u7ec4CMIP6\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u7ecf\u6d4e\u60c5\u666f\uff08SSP1-26\u3001SSP2-45\u3001SSP3-70\u3001SSP4-60\u3001SSP5-85\uff09\u548c\u4e09\u7ec4\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c61\u67d3\u63a7\u5236\u653f\u7b56\uff08\u5f53\u524d\u653f\u7b56\uff08BAU\uff09\u3001\u5f3a\u5316\u653f\u7b56\uff08ECP\uff09\u3001\u6700\u4f73\u653f\u7b56\uff08BHE\uff09\uff09\u7ec4\u5408\u800c\u6210\u3002\u76f8\u8f83\u4e8e\u653f\u5e9c\u95f4\u6c14\u5019\u53d8\u5316\u4e13\u95e8\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a\uff08IPCC\uff09\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u672a\u6765\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u53d1\u5c55\u60c5\u666f\uff0cDPEC\u7cfb\u5217\u60c5\u666f\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u5730\u523b\u753b\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u7684\u6c61\u67d3\u63a7\u5236\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u8f83\u4e3a\u5ba2\u89c2\u5730\u6355\u6349\u5230\u4e86\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c61\u67d3\u7269\u6392\u653e\u7684\u5267\u70c8\u53d8\u5316\uff08\u56fe2\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/new.meicmodel.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/TONG-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-600\" width=\"632\" height=\"464\" srcset=\"http:\/\/meic-dev.makenv.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/TONG-1.png 843w, http:\/\/meic-dev.makenv.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/TONG-1-300x220.png 300w, http:\/\/meic-dev.makenv.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/TONG-1-768x564.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 632px) 100vw, 632px\" \/><figcaption>\u56fe2\u4e3a\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u672a\u6765\u6392\u653e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0eCMIP6\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u5bf9\u6bd4\u7ed3\u679c<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">DPEC\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5b66\u548c\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u5927\u6c14\u9886\u57df\u77e5\u540d\u5b66\u672f\u671f\u520a\u300a\u5927\u6c14\u7269\u7406\u4e0e\u5316\u5b66\u300b\uff08Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics\uff09\u5728\u7ebf\u53d1\u8868\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\u7684\u6a21\u62df\u5206\u6790\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5728\u4f4e\u78b3\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b\u548c\u6700\u4f73\u6c61\u67d3\u63a7\u5236\u7ec4\u5408\u4e0b\uff08SSP1-26-BHE\u60c5\u666f\uff09\uff0c\u76f8\u8f832015\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3b\u8981\u6c61\u67d3\u7269\uff08SO<sub>2<\/sub>\u3001NO<sub>x<\/sub>\u3001PM<sub>2.5<\/sub>\u3001NMVOCs\uff09\u6392\u653e\u57282030\u5e74\u53ef\u964d\u4f4e34\uff05\u201366\uff05\uff0c\u81f32050\u5e74\u53ef\u964d\u4f4e58\uff05\u201387\uff05\u3002\u672b\u7aef\u63a7\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u53ef\u6709\u6548\u964d\u4f4e\u4e2d\u77ed\u671f\uff082015-2030\uff09\u7684\u6c61\u67d3\u7269\u6392\u653e\uff0c\u800c\u6df1\u5ea6\u4f4e\u78b3\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b\u5c06\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\uff082030-2050\uff09\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u51cf\u6392\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u57fa\u4e8eDPEC\u672a\u6765\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\uff0cMEIC\u6a21\u578b\u56e2\u961f\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6a21\u62df\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u8f6c\u578b\u548c\u6c61\u67d3\u63a7\u5236\u653f\u7b56\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd2010-2030\u5e74\u7684\u7a7a\u6c14\u8d28\u91cf\u6539\u5584\u6548\u76ca\u548c\u76f8\u5173\u5065\u5eb7\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u5728\u5b66\u672f\u671f\u520a\u300a\u6cd5\u62c9\u7b2c\u8ba8\u8bba\u300b\uff08Faraday Discussions\uff09\u5728\u7ebf\u53d1\u8868\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u6301\u7eed\u589e\u957f\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u73b0\u884c\u548c\u5373\u5c06\u51fa\u53f0\u7684\u6e05\u6d01\u7a7a\u6c14\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u4f7f\u5168\u56fd\u4eba\u53e3\u52a0\u6743PM<sub>2.5<\/sub>\u6d53\u5ea6\u4ece2010\u5e74\u768461.6 \u03bcg\/m<sup>3<\/sup>\u964d\u4f4e\u52302030\u5e74\u768426.4 \u03bcg\/m<sup>3<\/sup> \uff08\u964d\u4f4e57.2%\uff09\uff0c\u5c06\u786e\u4fdd80%\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u751f\u6d3b\u5728PM<sub>2.5<\/sub>\u6d53\u5ea6\u8fbe\u6807\uff0835 \u03bcg\/m<sup>3<\/sup>\uff09\u7684\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u57282030\u5e74\u907f\u514d9.5\uff0895% CI, 7.6, 10.4\uff09\u4e07\u4eba\u8fc7\u65e9\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff08\u56fe3\uff09\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u540c\u65f6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u53e3\u65e5\u76ca\u8001\u9f84\u5316\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u91c7\u53d6\u66f4\u5f3a\u6709\u529b\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u884c\u52a8\u6765\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u4fdd\u62a4\u516c\u4f17\u5065\u5eb7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"554\" height=\"278\" src=\"http:\/\/new.meicmodel.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/\u56fe\u7247-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1021\" srcset=\"http:\/\/meic-dev.makenv.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/\u56fe\u7247-3.png 554w, http:\/\/meic-dev.makenv.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/\u56fe\u7247-3-300x151.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 554px) 100vw, 554px\" \/><figcaption>\u56fe3\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u6e05\u6d01\u7a7a\u6c14\u884c\u52a8\u57282010-2030\u5e74\u7684\u7a7a\u6c14\u8d28\u91cf\u548c\u5065\u5eb7\u6548\u76ca<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8bba\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/acp.copernicus.org\/articles\/20\/5729\/2020\/acp-20-5729-2020.html\">https:\/\/acp.copernicus.org\/articles\/20\/5729\/2020\/acp-20-5729-2020.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/pubs.rsc.org\/en\/content\/articlelanding\/2021\/FD\/D0FD00090F#!divAbstract\">https:\/\/pubs.rsc.org\/en\/content\/articlelanding\/2021\/FD\/D0FD00090F#!divAbstract<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7814\u7a76\u9996\u6b21\u6784\u5efa\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u672a\u6765\u4eba\u4e3a\u6e90\u6392\u653e\u52a8\u6001\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\uff08DPEC\uff09\uff0c\u7efc\u5408\u5168\u7403SSP-RCP\u60c5\u666f\u77e9\u9635\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u672c\u5730\u5316\u6c61\u67d3\u63a7\u5236\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u591a\u7ec4\u4e2d\u56fd2015-2050\u5e74\u5927\u6c14\u6210\u5206\u6392\u653e\u60c5\u666f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u4e39 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